Private Equity Simulation

Evaluate LBO opportunity, build investment thesis, and model returns

Your Progress

Introduction 0% Complete

Summit Field Services

Facilities Maintenance Services - LBO Target

Investment Opportunity Overview

Enterprise Value
$238M
LTM EBITDA
$28.0M
Entry Multiple
8.5x EBITDA
Revenue (LTM)
$145M
DEAL OPPORTUNITY: You are an Associate at Thoma Bravo (mid-market PE fund, $8B AUM) evaluating an LBO of Summit Field Services, a commercial facilities maintenance company serving office buildings, retail centers, and industrial facilities across the Southeast US. The seller (founder looking to retire) is asking $238M ($28M EBITDA × 8.5x). Your task is to assess comparable companies, build an investment thesis around a roll-up strategy, model the LBO returns, and make an invest/pass recommendation to the IC (Investment Committee).

Deal Materials & Target Analysis

Review all materials before beginning your investment analysis

PE Analysis Framework for This Deal:

Comparable Companies: Benchmark Summit's metrics against 6 public/private comps to validate valuation
Investment Thesis: Articulate why this is an attractive platform for a roll-up strategy in fragmented market
Value Creation: Quantify 5 levers (add-ons, pricing, efficiency, digital, scale) with EBITDA impact
LBO Model: Build sources & uses, project 5-year EBITDA growth, calculate exit value and returns
Risk & Exit: Assess key risks (integration, recession, labor) and optimize exit strategy

Summit Field Services - Investment Materials

Click to View

Company Background - Summit Field Services

Summit Field Services is a commercial facilities maintenance company headquartered in Charlotte, NC. Founded in 2008 by Mike Henderson (current CEO and 100% owner), Summit provides HVAC maintenance, electrical services, plumbing, janitorial services, and general building repairs to commercial clients. The company operates across 6 states in the Southeast (NC, SC, GA, FL, TN, VA) through 18 branch locations.

Business Model:

  • Service Mix: 62% recurring maintenance contracts (annual/multi-year), 38% on-demand repair work
  • Customer Base: 1,850 active commercial clients across office buildings (45%), retail/shopping centers (28%), industrial facilities (18%), other (9%)
  • Geographic Footprint: Concentrated in Charlotte, Atlanta, Nashville, Miami metro areas; limited presence in secondary markets
  • Employees: 420 field technicians, 65 office/management staff

Financial Profile (LTM, unaudited):

Metric Amount Margin / Growth
Revenue $145.2M +12.8% YoY
Gross Profit $62.1M 42.8% margin
Adjusted EBITDA $28.0M 19.3% margin
EBITDA Adjustments +$2.2M (owner perks, one-time items)
Capex $3.8M 2.6% of revenue
Net Working Capital $14.5M 10% of revenue

Revenue Growth Analysis:

  • 2020: $115M revenue
  • 2021: $122M (+6.1%)
  • 2022: $129M (+5.7%)
  • 2023 LTM: $145M (+12.8%)
  • 3-year CAGR: +8.0%

EBITDA Margin Expansion:

  • 2020: 16.5% EBITDA margin
  • 2021: 17.2%
  • 2022: 18.1%
  • 2023 LTM: 19.3%
  • Margin improvement driven by: pricing increases (2-3% annually), improved labor utilization, scale in procurement

Industry Overview - Facilities Maintenance Services

Total Addressable Market (TAM):

  • US commercial facilities maintenance market: $285B annually
  • Segment breakdown: HVAC (32%), Electrical (18%), Plumbing (15%), Janitorial (22%), General building repairs (13%)
  • Market growth: 6.5% CAGR (2020-2025), driven by aging commercial real estate infrastructure and preference for outsourcing
  • Geographic concentration: Southeast US represents 28% of national market ($80B), growing at 7.2% CAGR (faster than national average)

Competitive Landscape & Fragmentation:

  • Highly Fragmented: Estimated 92,000 facilities maintenance operators nationwide; top 50 companies represent only 14% market share
  • Summit's Position: $145M revenue = 0.051% national share, 0.18% Southeast share → Significant runway for consolidation
  • Fragmentation Drivers: Low barriers to entry, regional service delivery model, limited capital requirements, sticky customer relationships favor local operators
  • Consolidation Trend: PE-backed roll-ups increasingly active; 127 facilities services M&A transactions in 2023 (up from 89 in 2020)

Key Industry Demand Drivers:

  • Aging Infrastructure: Average age of US commercial buildings is 42 years; older buildings require 30-40% more maintenance spending
  • Outsourcing Trend: 68% of building owners now outsource maintenance (up from 52% in 2015); CFOs prefer OpEx over CapEx for building services
  • Regulatory Compliance: Increasing HVAC efficiency standards, electrical safety codes, and building certifications drive demand for specialized services
  • ESG Focus: Corporate sustainability goals require more frequent HVAC optimization, energy audits, and preventative maintenance

Comparable Company Analysis - Public & Private Comps

Analysis of 6 comparable facilities maintenance companies to benchmark Summit's financial profile and validate the 8.5x EBITDA entry multiple:

Company Revenue EBITDA Margin Revenue Growth (3yr CAGR) EV/EBITDA Multiple
ABM Industries (public) $8.1B 5.8% +3.2% 10.2x
EMCOR Group (public) $11.2B 6.4% +8.1% 12.5x
Comfort Systems USA (public) $4.8B 9.2% +11.4% 14.8x
ServiceMaster (PE-backed) $3.2B 16.5% +6.8% 11.5x
FirstService Corp (public) $4.5B 12.1% +9.2% 13.2x
Corrigan Company (private, PE-backed) $425M 18.8% +14.2% 9.8x
MEDIAN $4.0B 10.7% +8.0% 11.9x
Summit Field Services $145M 19.3% +8.0% 8.5x (entry)
Comparable Company Insights: Summit's 19.3% EBITDA margin is significantly above the 10.7% median, indicating superior operational efficiency and higher-quality earnings. The 8.5x entry multiple represents a 28% discount to the 11.9x median, justified by Summit's smaller scale ($145M vs. $4B median) and lower liquidity. However, Summit's margin profile and 8.0% growth rate match top-tier comparables, suggesting significant value creation potential if scale can be achieved through roll-up strategy.

Investment Thesis - Roll-Up Platform Strategy

Core Thesis: Summit represents an ideal platform to execute a fragmented industry roll-up in the Southeast US facilities maintenance market. The combination of Summit's superior unit economics (19.3% margins vs. 10.7% median), proven management team, and highly fragmented competitive landscape ($80B Southeast market with 92,000 operators) creates a compelling opportunity to build a regional leader through aggressive M&A and organic growth.

Why Summit is an Attractive Platform:

  • Best-in-Class Margins: 19.3% EBITDA margins vs. 10.7% comparable median demonstrate operational excellence that can be replicated across acquired companies
  • Recurring Revenue Base: 62% of revenue from multi-year maintenance contracts provides cash flow stability and predictable growth
  • Scalable Infrastructure: Centralized dispatch system, procurement platform, and back-office functions can absorb add-on acquisitions at minimal incremental cost
  • Strong Management: CEO Mike Henderson (25 years industry experience) committed to staying through transition; CFO and COO have track records executing 3 prior acquisitions
  • White Space Opportunity: Current presence in only 6 states with limited secondary market penetration; clear geographic expansion roadmap

Market Fragmentation Creates Roll-Up Opportunity:

  • 92,000 facilities maintenance operators nationally; top 50 companies = only 14% market share
  • Estimated 1,200 operators in Southeast US with $5-25M revenue (Summit's target acquisition profile)
  • Typical seller profile: founder-owned, 15-25 years in operation, no succession plan, limited technology/systems
  • Acquisition multiples for sub-$10M EBITDA targets: 5.0-6.5x (vs. Summit's 8.5x entry) creates arbitrage opportunity

Value Creation Plan - 5 Levers to Drive EBITDA Growth

LEVER 1: Add-On Acquisitions (Target: 8 acquisitions over 5 years)

Acquisition Profile Target Metrics
Average acquisition size $8M revenue, $1.5M EBITDA (18.8% margin)
Average purchase price 6.0x EBITDA = $9M per deal
Total capital deployed (8 deals) $72M
Acquired EBITDA (year of acquisition) $12M (8 × $1.5M)
Synergies & margin improvement +200bps margin improvement on acquired revenue through procurement scale, back-office consolidation
Total EBITDA Impact (Year 5) +$12.0M baseline + $1.3M synergies = +$13.3M

LEVER 2: Pricing Optimization

  • Current State: Summit's pricing is 8-12% below market in certain service lines due to conservative legacy pricing model
  • Initiative: Implement value-based pricing for recurring contracts; annual 3-4% increases vs. historical 2%
  • Execution: Upgrade to dynamic pricing software; train sales team on value selling; target top 200 accounts for repricing
  • EBITDA Impact: +$6.2M by Year 5 (2% incremental price increase × $155M organic revenue base × 100% margin flow-through on pricing)

LEVER 3: Operational Efficiency

  • Labor Utilization: Improve technician utilization from 72% to 78% through better scheduling and route optimization (+$2.8M EBITDA)
  • Procurement Scale: Centralize purchasing across all locations; negotiate national contracts with suppliers for 5-8% cost reduction (+$1.6M EBITDA)
  • Total EBITDA Impact: +$4.4M by Year 5

LEVER 4: Digital Dispatch & Customer Platform

  • Investment: $2.5M technology investment in Years 1-2 for mobile dispatch app, customer portal, IoT sensors
  • Benefits: Reduce emergency callout response time from 4.2 hours → 2.8 hours; enable predictive maintenance upsell
  • EBITDA Impact: +$2.1M by Year 5 (higher customer retention, incremental service revenue from predictive maintenance contracts)

LEVER 5: Overhead Scale

  • Current State: SG&A = 23.5% of revenue
  • Target: Leverage fixed overhead as revenue scales through M&A; target 20.0% SG&A by Year 5
  • EBITDA Impact: +$2.0M (3.5% × revenue growth spread over overhead base)
Total Value Creation - EBITDA Bridge (Year 0 → Year 5):

Year 0 Baseline EBITDA: $28.0M
+ Organic Growth (5% annually on base): +$7.0M
+ Add-On Acquisitions: +$13.3M
+ Pricing Optimization: +$6.2M
+ Operational Efficiency: +$4.4M
+ Digital/Technology: +$2.1M
+ Overhead Leverage: +$2.0M
Year 5 Pro Forma EBITDA: $63.0M
Total EBITDA Growth: +$35.0M (+125%)

LBO Financial Model - Sources & Uses, Returns Analysis

Transaction Structure - Sources & Uses of Funds:

SOURCES Amount ($M) % of Total
Equity Contribution (Thoma Bravo Fund VII) $105.8 40.0%
Senior Debt (Term Loan, 5.0x EBITDA @ 8.5% interest) $140.0 52.9%
Seller Note (2-year, 7.0% interest) $18.8 7.1%
TOTAL SOURCES $264.6 100.0%
USES Amount ($M) % of Total
Purchase Price (Enterprise Value) $238.0 89.9%
Transaction Fees (Legal, Banking, Diligence) $7.1 2.7%
Financing Fees $4.2 1.6%
Working Capital Adjustment $0 0%
Cash to Balance Sheet $15.3 5.8%
TOTAL USES $264.6 100.0%

Key Transaction Metrics:

  • Entry Multiple: 8.5x LTM EBITDA (28% discount to 11.9x comparable median)
  • Debt/EBITDA: 5.0x (including seller note); 5.7x total leverage
  • Equity Check: $105.8M (10% of Thoma Bravo Fund VII)
  • Debt Structure: Senior term loan amortizes 10% annually; seller note paid in full Year 2

5-Year Financial Projections:

Metric Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Revenue $145M $162M $182M $208M $237M $265M
EBITDA $28.0M $34.5M $42.8M $50.2M $56.8M $63.0M
EBITDA Margin 19.3% 21.3% 23.5% 24.1% 24.0% 23.8%
Net Debt $158.8M $145.2M $128.6M $107.8M $83.2M $55.0M
Debt / EBITDA 5.7x 4.2x 3.0x 2.1x 1.5x 0.9x

Exit Scenarios & Return Analysis (Year 5 Exit):

Scenario Exit Multiple Enterprise Value Equity Value Gross MOIC IRR
Bear Case 8.0x EBITDA $504M $449M 2.4x 19.2%
Base Case 9.5x EBITDA $599M $544M 3.2x 26.1%
Bull Case 11.0x EBITDA $693M $638M 4.0x 32.0%
Base Case Return Logic: 9.5x exit multiple (20% premium to 8.5x entry multiple, 20% discount to 11.9x comparable median) justified by: (1) $265M revenue scale achieved through M&A, (2) 23.8% EBITDA margin demonstrating operational excellence, (3) diversified geographic presence across Southeast, (4) proven management team with successful integration track record. Base case delivers 3.2x MOIC / 26% IRR, significantly above Thoma Bravo's 20% IRR fund target and mid-market PE median returns (22% IRR).

Investment Risks & Mitigation Strategies

RISK 1: Integration Execution Risk (Probability: Medium | Impact: High)

  • Risk Description: Acquiring 8 companies in 5 years requires flawless integration execution. Poor integration could result in customer attrition, technician turnover, and margin dilution rather than accretion.
  • Mitigation: Hire dedicated VP of M&A/Integration with prior roll-up experience; develop standardized 100-day integration playbook; limit acquisitions to 2 per year in Years 1-2 to build muscle memory before accelerating
  • Contingency: If integration struggles emerge, slow acquisition pace and focus on organic growth (5% annually) + margin improvement instead

RISK 2: Recession / Economic Downturn (Probability: Medium | Impact: Medium)

  • Risk Description: Facilities maintenance is partially discretionary; economic downturn could cause customers to defer non-emergency repairs, impacting revenue and margin
  • Historical Context: During 2008-2009 recession, facilities maintenance spending declined -8% nationally but rebounded within 18 months
  • Mitigation: 62% revenue from recurring contracts provides downside protection; focus M&A on companies with higher recurring % to increase portfolio stability; maintain 1.5x+ debt/EBITDA headroom vs. covenant levels

RISK 3: Labor Inflation & Technician Availability (Probability: High | Impact: Medium)

  • Risk Description: Skilled HVAC/electrical technicians are scarce; wage inflation averaging 5-6% annually in skilled trades could compress margins
  • Mitigation: Pass through labor cost increases via annual price escalators (90% of recurring contracts include CPI-linked pricing); invest in technician training program to develop talent internally; explore H1B sponsorship for international technicians

RISK 4: Regulatory / Licensing Changes (Probability: Low | Impact: Medium)

  • Risk Description: Changes to HVAC refrigerant regulations, electrical licensing requirements, or environmental standards could require costly compliance investments
  • Mitigation: Maintain strong relationships with industry associations; budget $500K annually for compliance/training; regulatory changes typically phase in over 2-3 years providing lead time

Exit Strategy Considerations

Exit Option 1: Strategic Sale to Larger Platform (Probability: 60%)

  • Potential Buyers: ABM Industries, EMCOR, Comfort Systems, or other national facilities services platforms seeking Southeast presence
  • Rationale: By Year 5, Summit will have $265M revenue, 23.8% EBITDA margins, and platform infrastructure supporting $500M+ revenue. This profile is highly attractive to strategic buyers seeking to fill geographic white space or acquire best-in-class margins.
  • Expected Multiple: 10-12x EBITDA (strategic premium for synergies, platform capabilities)
  • Pros: Highest valuation potential; certainty of execution; no public market risk
  • Cons: Buyer pool limited; may require extended earnouts or employment commitments

Exit Option 2: Secondary Buyout to Larger PE Fund (Probability: 35%)

  • Potential Buyers: Upper-mid-market or large-cap PE funds (KKR, Apollo, Carlyle) seeking platforms for further roll-up
  • Rationale: Summit's proven M&A playbook and margin improvement track record make it an ideal platform for a larger fund to execute next phase of growth (expand to additional regions, pursue larger add-ons)
  • Expected Multiple: 9-10x EBITDA
  • Pros: Competitive auction process; management continuity; potential for continued upside via rollover equity
  • Cons: Lower multiple than strategic; subject to debt market conditions

Exit Option 3: IPO (Probability: 5%)

  • Rationale: If Summit achieves high end of projections ($300M+ revenue, 25%+ margins), IPO becomes viable to capture public market premium
  • Expected Multiple: 12-14x EBITDA (public market premium for growth + margin story)
  • Pros: Highest valuation; maintain partial ownership via retained stake; currency for future acquisitions
  • Cons: Requires $300M+ revenue scale; public market volatility; lockup periods; ongoing reporting burden
  • Decision Point: Reassess IPO viability in Year 3 based on achieved scale and public market conditions

Recommended Exit Strategy: Target strategic sale (Option 1) as primary path given highest probability of attractive valuation and execution certainty. Begin cultivating strategic relationships in Year 3; run dual-track process (strategic + secondary PE) in Year 5 to maximize competitive tension and valuation.

Section 1: Comparable Company Analysis

Benchmark Summit against public and private comps to validate valuation

Comparable Company Methodology

In PE, comparables serve two purposes:

  • Entry Valuation: Validate that the purchase price is reasonable relative to peer trading multiples
  • Exit Valuation: Project exit multiple based on where similar companies trade

Key metrics: EV/EBITDA multiple (primary valuation metric), EBITDA margin (quality of earnings), revenue growth (justifies multiple premium/discount)

Must extract exact median from materials table
Margin must match materials. Analysis minimum 80 words, explaining why high margins matter for LBO value creation.
Minimum 100 words. Must calculate exact discount percentage and explain small-cap/illiquidity discount justification.

Strong Response Example

Click to View

The 8.5x entry multiple represents a 28.6% discount to the 11.9x comparable median [(8.5 - 11.9) / 11.9 = -28.6%]. This discount is justified by three factors. First, Summit's $145M revenue is dramatically smaller than the $4.0B comparable median—public market investors demand a liquidity premium for larger, more liquid securities, and private buyers pay less for smaller assets that require more integration effort. Second, Summit lacks the geographic diversification of national platforms like ABM Industries ($8.1B, 10.2x) and EMCOR ($11.2B, 12.5x), concentrating risk in the Southeast region. Third, there's an inherent illiquidity discount for private companies versus public comparables that trade daily. However, this discount represents a compelling entry point because Summit's 19.3% EBITDA margin is 81% higher than the 10.7% comparable median, indicating significantly higher-quality earnings. The margin premium suggests that once Summit achieves scale through the roll-up strategy—growing from $145M to a projected $265M by Year 5—the valuation should converge toward comparable medians. The discount also creates multiple arbitrage: if we can acquire smaller targets at 5.0-6.5x and integrate them into Summit's 19.3% margin profile, we're buying at a discount to our own entry multiple. The combination of discounted entry, superior unit economics, and clear path to scale makes this an attractive investment despite the small-cap discount.

Section 2: Investment Thesis & Value Creation Plan

Articulate roll-up strategy and quantify EBITDA improvement levers

PE Value Creation Framework

Private equity creates value through three mechanisms:

  • Revenue Growth: Organic expansion + M&A (typically 60-70% of value creation)
  • Margin Expansion: Operational improvements, pricing, efficiency (typically 20-30%)
  • Multiple Expansion: Exit at higher multiple than entry (typically 10-15%)

Best investments have multiple value creation levers working in parallel, not dependent on a single driver.

Both numbers must match materials exactly
Extract from EBITDA Bridge in materials. Calculate percentage: (Year 5 - Year 0) / Year 0
Minimum 200 words. Must reference market data (92,000 operators, fragmentation), Summit's margin advantage, and quantified EBITDA impacts for multiple levers.

Strong Response Example

Click to View

Summit represents a textbook fragmented industry roll-up opportunity. The $285B US facilities maintenance market is served by 92,000 operators with the top 50 companies capturing only 14% market share—this extraordinary fragmentation creates a target-rich environment for consolidation. Within Summit's Southeast focus region, an estimated 1,200 operators with $5-25M revenue fit the ideal acquisition profile: founder-owned businesses with no succession plan and limited technology infrastructure. These targets typically trade at 5.0-6.5x EBITDA, well below Summit's 8.5x entry multiple, creating immediate arbitrage. Summit is the ideal platform to execute this roll-up for three reasons. First, its 19.3% EBITDA margin—81% above the 10.7% comparable median—demonstrates operational excellence that can be replicated across acquired companies. This isn't a low-margin commodity business; it's a high-quality operation with pricing power and efficient processes. Second, 62% of revenue comes from recurring multi-year maintenance contracts, providing cash flow stability to support aggressive M&A and reducing execution risk. Third, Summit has scalable infrastructure: centralized dispatch systems, established procurement relationships, and back-office functions that can absorb acquisitions at minimal incremental cost. The management team has successfully integrated 3 prior acquisitions, de-risking execution. The value creation plan leverages 5 complementary drivers. Lever 1 (add-on M&A) targets 8 acquisitions over 5 years, deploying $72M to acquire $12M of baseline EBITDA plus $1.3M in synergies from margin improvement, totaling +$13.3M. Lever 2 (pricing optimization) captures +$6.2M through moving from 2% to 3-4% annual price increases, exploiting Summit's current 8-12% below-market pricing in certain service lines. Lever 3 (operational efficiency) drives +$4.4M via improved technician utilization (72% → 78%) and centralized procurement. Lever 4 (digital transformation) invests $2.5M in dispatch technology and IoT sensors to improve response times and enable predictive maintenance upselling, contributing +$2.1M. Lever 5 (overhead leverage) reduces SG&A from 23.5% to 20.0% as revenue scales, adding +$2.0M. Combined with 5% organic growth on the base (+$7.0M), these levers grow EBITDA from $28.0M to $63.0M—a 125% increase. This thesis is compelling because the levers are mutually reinforcing rather than dependent on heroic assumptions: the M&A provides scale for procurement savings and overhead leverage, while operational improvements protect margins during rapid growth, and pricing power de-risks execution by providing a margin buffer.

Section 3: LBO Modeling & Return Analysis

Calculate equity value and projected IRR/MOIC for the investment

LBO Returns Framework

LBO returns are driven by:

  • EBITDA Growth: Operational improvement + M&A drive exit enterprise value
  • Multiple Expansion: Exit at higher multiple than entry (requires quality/scale improvements)
  • Debt Paydown: Cash flow reduces debt, increasing equity value
  • Leverage: Higher initial debt amplifies equity returns (but increases risk)

Target mid-market PE returns: 20-25% IRR, 2.5-3.5x MOIC over 5 years

Both must match Sources & Uses table exactly
Must extract exact figures from Base Case row in Exit Scenarios table
Minimum 150 words. Must explain multiple expansion rationale, show equity value calculation, and assess return attractiveness vs. PE benchmarks.

Strong Response Example

Click to View

The base case projects a 9.5x exit multiple, representing a 12% premium to the 8.5x entry multiple, justified by three fundamental improvements. First, Summit will have scaled from $145M to $265M in revenue (+83%) through a combination of organic growth and 8 successful add-on acquisitions, moving the company from subscale regional player toward national platform status. This scale matters because the comparable company analysis showed that larger platforms (EMCOR at $11.2B, FirstService at $4.5B) command 12-14x multiples while smaller operators trade at 9-10x—scale reduces risk and increases strategic buyer appetite. Second, Summit will have maintained best-in-class 23.8% EBITDA margins even while growing rapidly, demonstrating that the operational excellence isn't diluted by M&A. This margin profile remains 2x+ the comparable median, signaling that Summit has sustainable competitive advantages (pricing power, efficient operations, strong management) that justify a premium valuation. Third, the company will have a proven M&A integration playbook with 8 successful acquisitions completed, making it an attractive platform for either a strategic acquirer seeking to leverage that capability or a larger PE fund looking to execute a secondary buyout and continue the roll-up strategy. The equity value calculation: Year 5 EBITDA of $63.0M × 9.5x exit multiple = $598.5M enterprise value. Subtracting $55.0M net debt (reduced from $158.8M initial through cash flow generation) yields $543.5M equity value. Dividing by the $105.8M initial equity investment produces 3.2x gross MOIC, equivalent to 26.1% IRR over the 5-year hold period. This return profile is highly attractive relative to Thoma Bravo's 20% target fund IRR and exceeds the 22% median IRR for mid-market PE. The 3.2x MOIC provides meaningful margin of safety—even if the exit multiple compresses to 8.5x (no multiple expansion), the investment still delivers 2.4x MOIC / 19.2% IRR in the bear case, meeting minimum return thresholds. The base case is achievable because it requires only modest multiple expansion (+12%) driven by tangible scale and margin improvements, not heroic market assumptions.

Section 4: Risk Mitigation & Exit Planning

Assess investment risks and optimize exit strategy

PE Risk Assessment Framework

Effective risk analysis identifies:

  • Probability: How likely is the risk to materialize? (Low/Medium/High)
  • Impact: If it occurs, how much does it hurt returns? (Low/Medium/High)
  • Mitigation: What actions reduce probability or impact?
  • Contingency: If mitigation fails, what's Plan B?
Risk selection must match materials. Mitigation summary minimum 60 words.
Must match recommended strategy from materials
Minimum 200 words. Must take clear invest/pass position with comprehensive rationale referencing financial metrics and risk assessment.

Strong Response Example

Click to View

Strong recommend to invest. Summit Field Services represents a rare combination of attractive entry valuation, clear value creation roadmap, and strong downside protection that meets all IC criteria for mid-market deployment. On valuation, the 8.5x entry multiple is 28% below the 11.9x comparable median despite Summit having best-in-class 19.3% EBITDA margins (vs. 10.7% median). This discount is explained by small scale, not poor quality—we're buying operational excellence at a small-cap discount. The value creation plan is credible and diversified across 5 levers. The M&A component (+$13.3M EBITDA from 8 add-ons) benefits from Summit's proven integration capability (3 prior acquisitions) and highly fragmented target market (1,200 operators in Southeast at 5.0-6.5x multiples vs. our 8.5x entry). Pricing optimization (+$6.2M) exploits Summit's current 8-12% below-market pricing with minimal execution risk. Operational efficiency (+$4.4M) through technician utilization and procurement is standard PE playbook. The digital investment (+$2.1M) is modest but high-ROI. Even if we only achieve 70% of plan, we still hit $55M EBITDA vs. $63M target, supporting attractive returns. Return profile is compelling: base case 26.1% IRR / 3.2x MOIC significantly exceeds our 20% fund target and 22% mid-market median. Critically, the bear case (8.0x exit, only modest EBITDA growth) still delivers 19.2% IRR / 2.4x MOIC—this downside protection is rare and reflects both the discounted entry and high-quality earnings. Risk assessment is manageable. Integration risk is the primary concern but is mitigated by experienced management, standardized playbook, and phased acquisition approach (limit to 2 deals/year initially). Labor inflation risk is real (High probability) but addressed through CPI-linked pricing escalators in 90% of recurring contracts and internal training programs. Recession risk is partially hedged by 62% recurring revenue providing downside stability. Exit strategy is highly executable: 60% probability strategic sale to national platforms seeking Southeast presence (ABM, EMCOR, Comfort Systems are all logical buyers at 10-12x), 35% secondary PE, 5% IPO. Having multiple paths de-risks exit execution. The combination of 28% entry discount, 125% EBITDA growth potential, 26% IRR base case, 19% IRR bear case, and diversified exit optionality creates asymmetric risk/reward favoring investment. Recommend proceeding to final diligence and term sheet.

Investment Analysis Complete

Review your PE case performance

Your Total Score

--

Calculating...

Section 1: Comparable Companies --/25
Section 2: Investment Thesis --/25
Section 3: LBO Model & Returns --/25
Section 4: Risk & Exit Strategy --/25